Robust long-term energy portfolios - A climate mitigation analysis

Szolgayova J, Fuss S, Khabarov N, & Obersteiner M (2010). Robust long-term energy portfolios - A climate mitigation analysis. In: Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE 2010), 21-23 April 2010.

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Abstract

The UNFCCC calls for stabilization of greenhouse gases at a safe level, and it also prescribes measures to anticipate, prevent, or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate their adverse effects. Such measures should be cost-effective and scientific uncertainty should not be used as a reason for postponing them. However, in the light of uncertainty about climate sensitivity and other underlying parameters, it is difficult to assess the importance of different technologies in achieving robust long-term climate risk mitigation. One example currently debated in this context is biomass energy, which can be used to produce both carbon-neutral energy carriers, e.g. electricity, and at the same time offer a permanent CO2 sink by capturing carbon from the biomass at the conversion facility and permanently storing it. We use the GGI Scenario Database (IIASA, 2009) as a point of departure for deriving optimal technology portfolios across different socio-economic scenarios for a range of stabilization targets, focusing, in particular, on new, low-emission scenarios. More precisely, the dynamics underlying technology adoption and operational decisions are analyzed in a real options model, the output of which then informs the portfolio optimization. In this way we determine the importance of different energy technologies in meeting specific stabilization targets under different circumstances (i.e. under different socio-economic scenarios), providing valuable insight to policymakers about the incentive mechanisms needed to achieve robust long-term climate risk mitigation.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (UNSPECIFIED)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Robust energy portfolios; Climate policy; Socio-economic scenarios
Research Programs: Forestry (FOR)
Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI)
Bibliographic Reference: In:; Proceedings of the International Conference on Applied Energy (ICAE 2010); 21-23 April 2010, Singapore, pp.782-793
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Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:44
Last Modified: 20 Jan 2016 16:46
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9415

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