Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector

Myhre G, Shine KP, Raedel G, Gauss M, Isaksen ISA, Tang Q, Prather MJ, Williams JE, et al. (2011). Radiative forcing due to changes in ozone and methane caused by the transport sector. Atmospheric Environment 45 (2): 387-394. DOI:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2010.10.001.

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Abstract

The year 2000 radiative forcing (RF) due to changes in O3 and CH4 (and the CH4-induced stratospheric water vapour) as a result of emissions of short-lived gases (oxides of nitrogen (NOx), carbon monoxide and non-methane hydrocarbons) from three transport sectors (ROAD, maritime SHIPping and AIRcraft) are calculated using results from five global atmospheric chemistry models. Using results from these models plus other published data, we quantify the uncertainties. The RF due to short-term O3 changes (i.e. as an immediate response to the emissions without allowing for the long-term CH4 changes) is positive and highest for ROAD transport (31 mWm^{-2}) compared to SHIP (24 mW ^m{-2}) and AIR (17 mW ^m{-2}) sectors in four of the models. All five models calculate negative RF from the CH4 perturbations, with a larger impact from the SHIP sector than for ROAD and AIR. The net RF of O3 and H4 combined (i.e. including the impact of CH4 on ozone and stratospheric water vapour) is positive for ROAD (+16(+/-13) (one standard deviation) mW m^{-2}) and AIR (+6(+/-5) mW m^{-2}) traffic sectors and is negative for SHIP (-18(+/-10) mW m^{-2}) sector in all five models. Global Warming Potentials (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potentials (GTP) are presented for AIR NOx emissions; there is a wide spread in the results from the 5 chemistry models, and it is shown that differences in the methane response relative to the O3 response drive much of the spread.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Radiative forcing; GWP; GTP; Shipping; Aviation; Road transport
Research Programs: Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Atmospheric Pollution (APD)
Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Bibliographic Reference: Atmospheric Environment; 45(2):387-394 (January 2011) (Published online 15 October 2010)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified: 04 Apr 2016 10:18
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9651

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