Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios

Clarke L, Krey V, Weyant J, & Chaturvedi V (2012). Regional energy system variation in global models: Results from the Asian Modeling Exercise scenarios. Energy Economics 34 (3): S293-S305. DOI:10.1016/j.eneco.2012.07.018.

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Abstract

This paper explores the variation in Asian energy systems in the energy-economic and integrated assessment models participating in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME). Consistent with previous studies, there is substantial variation in energy system configurations across the AME scenarios, a reflection of the inherent uncertainty in how countries might undertake climate mitigation and associated energy system decisions. The paper also explores the degree to which scenarios from individual models retain regional differences in energy system configurations over time. The scenarios are mixed in this regard. Some models tend to converge toward common energy systems that focus on the utilization of a common set of options across regions, while others retain strong differences among regions. A review of modeling approaches indicates that the participating models are constructed to represent many, but not all, of the real-world forces leading to regional variation. The models do not have the capability to represent some of the most important social and political factors that influence energy technology decision making, raising important questions about how decision makers should interpret regional variations across models, particularly over the medium to long term.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Technology; Scenarios; Energy; Asia; Integrated assessment; Electricity
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Energy Economics; 34(Suppl.3):S293-S305 (December 2012) (Published online 2 August 2012)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:46
Last Modified: 12 Sep 2016 13:16
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9896

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