Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change

Hoang, L. P., Lauri, H., Kummu, M., Koponen, J., van Vliet, M., Supit, I., Leemans, R., Kabat, P., et al. (2016). Mekong River flow and hydrological extremes under climate change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 20 (7) 3027-3041. 10.5194/hessd-12-11651-2015.

Mekong River flow and hydrological.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (2MB) | Preview
Mekong River flow and hydrologicalsupp.pdf - Supplemental Material
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (372kB) | Preview


Climate change poses critical threats to water related safety and sustainability in the Mekong River basin. Hydrological impact signals derived from CMIP3 climate change scenarios, however, are highly uncertain and largely ignore hydrological extremes. This paper provides one of the first hydrological impact assessments using the most recent CMIP5 climate change scenarios. Furthermore, we model and analyse changes in river flow regimes and hydrological extremes (i.e. high flow and low flow conditions). Similar to earlier CMIP3-based assessments, the hydrological cycle also intensifies in the CMIP5 climate change scenarios. The scenarios ensemble mean shows increases in both seasonal and annual river discharges (annual change between +5 and +16%, depending on location). Despite the overall increasing trend, the individual scenarios show differences in the magnitude of discharge changes and, to a lesser extent, contrasting directional chages. We further found that extremely high flow events increase in both magnitude and frequency. Extremely low flows, on the other hand, are projected to occur less often under climate change. Higher low flows can help reducing dry season water shortage and controlling salinization in the downstream Mekong Delta. However, higher and more frequent peak discharges will exacerbate flood risk in the basin. The implications of climate change induced hydrological changes are critical and thus require special attention in climate change adaptation and disaster-risk reduction.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Water (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 15 Feb 2016 09:53
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:25

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313