An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game

Stahl, I. (1980). An Interactive Model for Determining Coal Costs for a CO2-Game. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-80-154

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Abstract

A question of great interest in assessing future energy options is whether the burning of carbon, in the future mainly coal, will continue increasing so that the level of CO2 in the atmosphere rises significantly, perhaps doubling by the middle of the next century. It is widely believed that such an increase in atmospheric CO2 would lead to an unprecedented warning of the earth's climate and possibly severe consequences for the economy and environment. A project, called Carbon and Climate Gaming, has recently been started at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis to examine this issue. An important pat of the project deals with the construction of a computer-based game focused on the extraction, trade, and burning of coal during the next half century. The game aims at investigating whether different nations will pursue independent myopic energy policies, leading to a potential "tragedy of the commons," or whether there will be some sort of international cooperation to avoid drastic climatic changes.

For the game it is important to have forecasts of how the costs of extracting coal will develop in various countries over time, dependent on both the actual and the cumulative production quantities. Since these cost functions should appear reasonable to the players of the game it is desirable that the players themselves can, in a short time, construct or revise these functions. This can be done by the computer dialogue system presented here. By answering approximately thirty questions a player determines the parameters of the cost model. Since the player continuously obtains feedback about the implications of his answers and then can revise them, the dialogue can continue until the player obtains a total cost function that appears reasonable.

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