The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming

Seneviratne SI, Rogelj J, Séférian R, Wartenburger R, Allen MR, Cain M, Millar RJ, Ebi KL, et al. (2018). The many possible climates from the Paris Agreement’s aim of 1.5 °C warming. Nature 558: 41-49. DOI:10.1038/s41586-018-0181-4.

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Project: Land-Climate Interactions: Constraints for Droughts and Heatwaves in a Changing Climate (DROUGHT-HEAT, FP7 617518), Coordinated Research in Earth Systems and Climate: Experiments (CRESCENDO, H2020 641816)

Abstract

The United Nations’ Paris Agreement includes the aim of pursuing efforts to limit global warming to only 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. However, it is not clear what the resulting climate would look like across the globe and over time.Here we show that trajectories towards a ‘1.5 °C warmer world’ may result in vastly different outcomes at regional scales,owing to variations in the pace and location of climate change and their interactions with society’s mitigation, adaptation and vulnerabilities to climate change. Pursuing policies that are considered to be consistent with the 1.5 °C aim will not completely remove the risk of global temperatures being much higher or of some regional extremes reaching dangerous levels for ecosystems and societies over the coming decades.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 05 Jun 2018 17:00
Last Modified: 07 Jun 2018 11:59
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15316

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