Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C

Liu J-Y, Fujimori S, Takahashi K, Hasegawa T, Su X, & Masui T (2018). Socioeconomic factors and future challenges of the goal of limiting the increase in global average temperature to 1.5 °C. Carbon Management 9 (5): 447-457. DOI:10.1080/17583004.2018.1477374.

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Abstract

The Paris Agreement has confirmed that the ultimate climate policy goal is to hold the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C. Moving the goal from 2 °C to 1.5 °C calls for much more concerted effort, and presents greater challenges and costs. This study uses an Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium (AIM/CGE) to evaluate the role of socioeconomic factors (e.g. technological cost and energy demand assumptions) in changing mitigation costs and achieving the 1.5 °C and 2 °C goals, and to identify the channels through which socioeconomic factors affect mitigation costs. Four families of socioeconomic factors were examined, namely low-carbon energy-supply technologies, end-use energy-efficiency improvements, lifestyle changes and biomass-technology promotion (technology cost reduction and social acceptance promotion). The results show that technological improvement in low-carbon energy-supply technologies is the most important factor in reducing mitigation costs. Moreover, under the constraints of the 1.5 °C goal, the relative effectiveness of other socioeconomic factors, such as energy efficiency improvement, lifestyle changes and biomass-related technology promotion, becomes more important in decreasing mitigation cost in the 1.5 °C scenarios than in the 2 °C scenarios.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Socioeconomic factors, 1.5 °C goal, Paris Agreement, SSPs, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 21 Jun 2018 06:32
Last Modified: 15 May 2019 08:07
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15341

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