Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico

Mendoza Ponce A, Corona-Núñez RO, Galicia L, & Kraxner F (2018). Identifying hotspots of land use cover change under socioeconomic and climate change scenarios in Mexico. Ambio 48 (4): 336-349. DOI:10.1007/s13280-018-1085-0.

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Abstract

This study identifies the hotspots of land use cover change (LUCC) under two socioeconomic and climate change scenarios [business as usual (BAU) and a pessimistic scenario] at the national level for Mexico for three-time periods. Modelling suggests that by 2050 grassland and tropical evergreen forest will be the most endangered ecosystems, having lost 20–33% (BAU) or 43–46% (pessimistic scenario) of their extent in comparison to 1993. Agricultural expansion would be the major driver of LUCC, increasing from 24.4% of the country in 1993 to 30% (BAU) or 34% (pessimistic) in 2050. The most influential variables were distance from roads and human settlements, slope, aridity, and evapotranspiration. The hotspots of LUCC were influenced by environmental constraints and socioeconomic activities more than by climate change. These findings could be used to build proposals to reduce deforestation, including multiple feedbacks among urbanization, industrialization and food consumption.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Deforestation; Drivers; Ecosystems; Mexico; Scenarios
Research Programs: Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2018 08:31
Last Modified: 02 Apr 2019 10:00
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/15419

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