India’s Energy and Emissions Outlook: Results from India Energy Model

Thambi, S., Bhatacharya, A., & Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883 (2018). India’s Energy and Emissions Outlook: Results from India Energy Model. Energy, Climate Change and Overseas Engagement Division, NITI Aayog (National Institution for Transforming India)

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Abstract

India currently ranks as one of the top energy consumers in the world. With India’s population and GDP expected to grow in the future, energy demand will see a significant rise and with that associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as well. In keeping with these developments, numerous policy measures are being discussed, which though focused on increasing access to energy, also aim to keep emissions in check.
In this paper, using a bottom- up energy systems model, we present a modeling based approach to understand the future development of India’s complex energy system and also look at how India’s commitments on climate change, as outlined in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which is a part of the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015), will affect its future energy and emissions scenarios. By increasing the installed capacity of renewables to 175GW by 2022, India will be able to surpass its NDC target of achieving 40% non-fossil capacity by 2022. With a 45% installed capacity from non-fossil sources by 2030, power sector emissions will consequently decline by 11% (375MtCO2) from a business-as-usual development, depicted as a baseline scenario, and thermal generation will continue to be the major source of power supply in the country.
This study also found that solar penetration in India is highly cost sensitive. By analyzing alternative renewable energy technology cost developments in the future, we find that a decrease in solar cost by 50% can increase solar penetration by more than eight times as compared to the baseline scenario. This shows that penetration of renewable energy is highly cost elastic in the Indian market and therefore continued policy support to promote RE is essential to achieve the target.

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