Dynamic modeling of age-structured migration flows

Tarasyev A, Agarkov G, Rovenskaya E, & Cao G-Y (2019). Dynamic modeling of age-structured migration flows. AIP Conference Proceedings 2186: e050004. DOI:10.1063/1.5137937.

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Abstract

Dynamics of labor migration processes depends on the differentiation and degree of labor market development. Significant difference in the development of socio-economic systems and labor markets is one of the main explanatory factors of increasing migration mobility between developing countries. Provisions of the neoclassical theory of economics, the concept of new economics of migration, the theory of dual labor market, the theory of individual choice, the Lee econometric model and the Massey's synthetic theory of migration, used in our approach, explain this phenomenon. Effective regulation of labor migration implies the need to predict the volume, structure and direction of migration and to estimate the effect of age-structured migration flows on the labor market development. In drawing up the basic dynamic equations of models, it is necessary to consider the situation in the labor markets, characterized by the absence of barriers and boundaries, which will set the socio-economic system with the same initial conditions for all rational individuals and regions, taken into account in the models. This article describes a model that takes into account the feedback of the average wage determined by the supply of labor resources, affecting the migration processes between the countries of origin and destination. The model takes into account the impact of the age distribution of migration flows on the labor market in the country of destination of migration and allows to assess the potential of migration flows and their impact on the socio-economic system. The dynamic model of labor migration is also a model of optimization, which simulates the optimal level of labor resources and their costs, which allows to establish a strategy for the development of migration policy for the regions and countries of migration destination. The main characteristic of this model is that it can cover dynamic mechanisms of interaction of multifactor factors both in sending regions and in receiving countries simultaneously. This model can be used to estimate the outflow of migrants and returning migrants from countries of origin.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Advanced Systems Analysis (ASA)
Exploratory and Special projects (ESP)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2020 09:30
Last Modified: 08 Jan 2020 13:09
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/16251

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