Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation

Konapala G, Mishra AK, Wada Y ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4770-2539, & Mann ME (2020). Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation. Nature Communications 11 (1): e3044. DOI:10.1038/s41467-020-16757-w.

[img]
Preview
Text
s41467-020-16757-w.pdf - Published Version
Available under License Creative Commons Attribution.

Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation and evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society and ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such patterns from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a non-parametric analysis framework to analyze seasonal hydroclimatic regimes by classifying global land regions into nine regimes using late 20th century precipitation means and seasonality. These regimes are used to assess implications for water availability due to concomitant changes in mean and seasonal precipitation and evaporation changes using CMIP5 model future climate projections. Out of 9 regimes, 4 show increased precipitation variation, while 5 show decreased evaporation variation coupled with increasing mean precipitation and evaporation. Increases in projected seasonal precipitation variation in already highly variable precipitation regimes gives rise to a pattern of "seasonally variable regimes becoming more variable". Regimes with low seasonality in precipitation, instead, experience increased wet season precipitation.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Water (WAT)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 25 Jun 2020 11:13
Last Modified: 25 Jun 2020 11:13
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/16529

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
Phone: (+43 2236) 807 0 Fax:(+43 2236) 71 313