An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Damon Matthews, H., Tokarska, K.B., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Smith, C., MacDougall, A.H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., et al. (2021). An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment 2 (1) e7. 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9.

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Project: Constraining uncertainty of multi decadal climate projections (CONSTRAIN, H2020 820829)

Abstract

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 19 Jan 2021 10:35
Last Modified: 05 Feb 2021 16:00
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/16998

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