Analyzing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Using the Time-Dependent Reproduction Number and the Regression Discontinuity Framework: Comparison between Countries

Liu, S., Ermolieva, T., Cao, G.-Y., Chen, G., & Zheng, X. (2021). Analyzing the Effectiveness of COVID-19 Lockdown Policies Using the Time-Dependent Reproduction Number and the Regression Discontinuity Framework: Comparison between Countries. Engineering Proceedings 5 (1) e8. 10.3390/engproc2021005008.

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Abstract

This study compares the effectiveness of COVID-19 control policies on the virus’s spread and on the change of the infection dynamics in China, Germany, Austria, and the USA relying on a regression discontinuity in time and ‘earlyR’ epidemic models. The effectiveness of policies is measured by real-time reproduction number and cases counts. Comparison between the two lockdowns within each country showed the importance of people's risk perception for the effectiveness of the measures. Results suggest that restrictions applied for a long period or reintroduced later may cause at-tenuated effect on the circulation of the virus and the number of casualties.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: COVID-19; regression discontinuity in time and ‘earlyR’ epidemic models; real-time reproduction number; risk perception; effectiveness of intervention measures
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Depositing User: Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited: 05 Jul 2021 10:48
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:34
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17302

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