How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context

Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Havlik, P ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Tabeau, A., Witzke, P., Boere, E., Bogonos, M., Deppermann, A., van Dijk, M., et al. (2021). How much multilateralism do we need? Effectiveness of unilateral agricultural mitigation efforts in the global context. Environmental Research Letters 16 (10) e104038. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac2967.

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Project: SUpport for Policy RElevant Modelling of Agriculture (SUPREMA, H2020 773499), Exploring National and Global Actions to reduce Greenhouse gas Emissions (ENGAGE, H2020 821471), Next generation of AdVanced InteGrated Assessment modelling to support climaTE policy making (NAVIGATE, H2020 821124), Modelling INdividual Decisions to Support The European Policies related to agriculture (MIND STEP, H2020 817566)

Abstract

Achieving climate neutrality in the European Union (EU) by 2050 will require substantial efforts across all economic sectors, including agriculture. At the same time, an ambitious unilateral EU agricultural mitigation policy is likely to have adverse effects on the sector and may have limited efficiency at global scale due to emission leakage to non-EU regions. To analyse the competitiveness of the EU's agricultural sector and potential non-CO2 emission leakage conditional on mitigation efforts outside the EU, we apply three economic agricultural sector models. We find that an ambitious unilateral EU mitigation policy in line with efforts needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target globally strongly affects EU ruminant production and trade balance. However, since EU farmers rank among the most greenhouse gas efficient producers worldwide, if the rest of the world were to start pursuing agricultural mitigation efforts too, economic impacts of an ambitious domestic mitigation policy get buffered and EU livestock producers could even start to benefit from a globally coordinated mitigation policy.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR)
Biodiversity and Natural Resources (BNR) > Integrated Biosphere Futures (IBF)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE)
Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Pollution Management (PM)
Depositing User: Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited: 12 Oct 2021 11:57
Last Modified: 12 Oct 2021 11:57
URI: http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/17492

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