Readme ====== Title ----- Data on East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 We have analysed two possible development scenarios for the extended Lake Victoria Basin (eLVB.) Each scenario combines a plausible socio-economic development pathway with climate change impacts calculated for the GHG concentration pathway RCP6.0 (i.e. medium climate change). A Reference Scenario (REF) applies the storyline and quantification of one of the IPCC’s Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP), the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario (SSP2). The East-Africa Regional Vision scenario (EA-RVS) portrays the vision of the region, as expressed in several vision studies and the first stakeholder workshop of the study. - Data comes as Excel files - Supplementary to the report: East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050 - The Excel Files have been used in the second workshop “East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050”, from December 4-6, 2018 in Entebbe, Uganda, for consultation and joint learning and for discussion and fine-tuning of modelling results Authorship ---------- Robert Burtscher burtsche@iiasa.ac.at Sylvia Tramberend trambers@iiasa.ac.at Peter Burek burek@iiasa.ac.at Taher Kahil kahil@iiasa.ac.at 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria Reference ========= IIASA Report East Africa Water Scenarios to 2050, May 2019 Authors: Sylvia Tramberend1, Robert Burtscher1, Peter Burek1, Taher Kahil1, Günther Fischer1, Junko Mochizuki1, Yoshihide Wada1, Richard Kimwaga2, Phillip Nyenje3, Risper Ondiek4, Prossie Nakawuka3, Canute Hyandye5, Claver Sibomana6, Simon Langan1 1 International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Austria 2 University of Dar es Salaam, Tanzania 3 Makerere University, Kampala, Uganda 4 University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences Vienna, Vienna 5 Institute of Rural Development Planning, Dodoma, UR Tanzania 6 University of Burundi, Bujumbura http://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/15904 Funding ------- The research in this document presents result of the research project ‘Water Futures and Solutions, Phase 2, (WFaS2 16-141), Water scenarios for East Africa’ funded by the Austrian Development Agency and the Austrian Federal Ministry, Sustainability and Tourism. This document reports on work of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis and has received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed herein do not necessarily represent those of the institute, its National Member Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work. Coorperations ------------- Lake Victoria Basin Commission Ministry of Water and Environment of the Government of Uganda Acknowledgment -------------- Completion of this work would have been very difficult without the unrelenting support of various stakeholders especially the participants of two workshops. The first “Solutions for a water secure East Africa in 2050” from December 4-6, 2017 provided key input and initiated the development of a regional scenario for East Africa. The second workshop “East Africa Future Water Scenarios to 2050”, from December 4-6, 2018, was a consultation and joint learning workshop for the discussion and fine-tuning of modelling results License ------- Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License Data Description ================ Results from the CWATM model See section 2.3 of the report, p. 4 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/cwatm 1_precipitation.xls pattern of precipitation is compared between different RCPs and General Circulation Models Section 5.2.1 p53f of the report 2_precipitation_flooddrought.xls Projection of low and strong rain events Section 5.2.1 p54f of the report 3_effective_precipitation.xls Effective precipitation = available water supply The part of precipitation which is stored in the soil and can be used by plants. Precipitation - percolated water - surface runoff 4_runoff.xls Part of precipitation or snow melt which runs on the surface into the next river Section 5.2.2 p56f of the report 5_discharge.xls River discharge at the outlet of each sub-basin Section 5.2.3 p57f of the report 6_population.xlsx Population projections Section 5.3.1 p60f of the report 7_GDP.xlsx Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections Section 5.3.2 p62f of the report 8_discharge_landuse_wateruse.xlsx Effect of landuse and water use change on river discharge Section 5.5.4 p76f of the report ECHO_README_DB_eLVB61.xlsx Description and metaddata of the results of the ECHO model See section 2.4 of the report, p. 8 http://www.iiasa.ac.at/echo ECHO_output_Scenario_REF.xlsx Echo results for the REF-scenario (see below for a description of the REF-scenario) ECHO_output_Scenario_EA-RVS.xlsx Echo results for the EA-RVS-scenario (see below for a description of the EA-RVS-scenario) A description is attached to the first sheet on each Excel file! Scenario description ==================== Socio-economic Scenarios ------------------------ see section 4.3 of the report , p.36 REF-scenario: The reference scenario REF is based on a widely used scenarios developed by a key constituency at the global scale, the IPCC. Specifically, we use the ‘Middle of the Road’ scenario from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2) combined with a model ensemble representing medium climate change. EA-RVS-scenario: The East Africa regional vision scenario EA-RVS utilizes available regional vision documents and the results of a stakeholder workshop to develop a scenario for East Africa. As expected, the EA-RVS narrative represents a sustainable path into the future. It can therefore be interpreted as a regional application of the IPCC ‘Sustainability’ scenario SSP1. In our effort to interpret the EA-RVS narrative into quantified variables necessary for water system modelling, we have therefore relied on SSP1 data when no regional data were available. Climate scenarios ----------------- see section 4.4.1 of the report , p.39 RCP2.6 RCP2.6 climate scenario See page 39f of the report The four RCPs, RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5, are named after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100 relative to pre-industrial values (+2.6, +4.5, +6.0, and +8.5 W/m2, respectively). Radiative forcing or climate forcing is the difference between insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space. Positive radiative forcing means Earth receives more incoming energy from sunlight than it radiates to space. This net gain of energy will cause warming. RCP6.0 RCP6.0 climate scenario General Circulation Models(GCM) ------------------------------- GCM select This determines which combination of the four GCMs are used The CWAT model is calibrated with historical data using WATCH+WFDEI as meteorological forcing GCM 1 GFDL-ESM2M GCM 2 HadGEM2-ES recommended for EAC GCM 3 IPSL-CM5A-LR GCM 4 MIROC5 recommended for EAC Sub basins ---------- see section 5.1 of the report , p.47 61 sub-basins of the extended Lake Victoria Basin up to the station Laropi/Uganda