Aspects of Urban Decline: Experiments with a Multilevel Economic- Demographic Model for the Dortmund Region

Wegener, M. (1982). Aspects of Urban Decline: Experiments with a Multilevel Economic- Demographic Model for the Dortmund Region. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-82-017

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Abstract

In this paper, selected results of a multilevel dynamic simulation model of the economic and demographic development in the urban region of Dortmund, FRG, are presented. The model simulates location decisions of industry, residential developers, and households, the resulting migration and commuting patterns, the land use development, and the impacts of public policies in the fields of industrial development, housing, and infrastructure.

In particular, the paper illustrates the capability of the model to capture not only urban growth processes, but also processes of urban decline. For this purpose, first the mechanisms which control spatial growth, decline, or redistribution of activities in the model are outlined. Second, it is demonstrated how the model reproduces the general pattern of past spatial development in the region. Third, results of simulations covering a wide range of potential over all economic and demographic development in the region are discussed.

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