Foreword
The collaboration between the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United
Nations (FAO) and the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
goes back more than 20 years, when FAO started a joint project on Land Resources
for the Populations of the Future, completed in 1984. Since then, several collaborative
programs were undertaken to underpin perspective studies that allowed prediction
and estimates on how agriculture would develop toward the 21st century, and
where problems were most likely to develop for achieving food security, particularly
in developing countries. Those estimates, which are currently being revisited
and extended in FAO's study "Agriculture towards 2015/30", have proved
to be quite accurate, and are widely quoted and appreciated.
Originating from an internationally accepted Framework for Land Evaluation,
the agro-ecological zones (AEZ) methodology enables rational land management
options to be formulated on the basis of an inventory of land resources and
an evaluation of biophysical limitations and potentials. The fact that digital
global databases of climatic parameters, topography, soil and terrain, land
cover, and population distribution are now more widely available has enabled
revisions and improvements in AEZ calculation procedures. These data have also
facilitated the expansion of
AEZ crop suitability and land productivity assessments to temperate and boreal
environments. Thus, the assessments of agricultural potentials are now truly
global.
A major challenge facing any scientific analysis of complex societal issues
is the communication of research results in a way that provides policy makers
and the public with helpful and reliable insights. This report presents the
methodology
and global data sets applied in the assessment and demonstrates the regional
potentials and limitations of land and biological resources. It also discusses
various agricultural issues related to regional food security and sustainable
resource development.
The report begins to address several key resource questions. Will there be enough
land for agricultural production to meet food and fiber demands of future populations?
Where do shortages of agricultural land exist, and where there is
room for agricultural expansion? What contribution can be expected from irrigation?
Is land under forest ecosystems potentially good agricultural land? What are
the main physical constraints to agricultural production? Will global warming
affect agricultural potentials?
It is hoped that the information presented in this report and the accompanying CD-ROM will contribute significantly to a sound use of scarce land resources, and to enhanced food security for all.
Louise Fresco
Assistant Director General
Agriculture Department
Food and Agriculture Organization
of the United Nations
Arne Jernelöv
Acting Director
International Institute for
Applied Systems Analysis