Future nuclear perspectives based on MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling

Rogner, M.L. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1045-9830 & Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 (2013). Future nuclear perspectives based on MESSAGE integrated assessment modeling. Energy Strategy Reviews 1 (4) 223-232. 10.1016/j.esr.2013.02.006.

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Abstract

Nuclear energy has the potential to be a vital component toward a clean energy strategy - but future energy systems may or may not include nuclear power. This study explores a range of future nuclear pathways consistent with different levels of energy demand, and explicitly assesses the implications of a potential global nuclear energy phase-out. In our scenarios the mitigation of climate change is one of the main factors driving a much needed transformation of the global energy system. A range of climate change mitigation scenarios is outlined and compared to a business-as-usual case. The scenarios are characteristic of different approaches to climate mitigation, including alternative combinations of supply and demand-side changes. Our analysis indicates that under a comprehensive and global mitigation effort, the stabilization of GHG concentrations at low levels (450 ppm CO2) would be technically achievable even at high energy demand and with a nuclear phase-out. We identify that significant investments in energy efficiency improvements and demand reduction offer the most flexibility in energy supply options and may or may not include nuclear power.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Energy scenarios; MESSAGE model; Nuclear energy; Global energy assessment
Research Programs:	Energy (ENE) Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Bibliographic Reference:	Energy Strategy Reviews; 1(4):223-232 (May 2013) (Published online 5 March 2013)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:49
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:23
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/10479

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