Integrated Multi-scale Modeling Framework for Assessment of Land-use Related Challenges under Global Change

Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Mosnier, A., Forsell, N., Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Leclère, D., Palazzo, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8167-9403, Ermolieva, T., Gusti, M., Balkovic, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2955-4931, Skalsky, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0983-6897, Schmid, E., Herrero, M., Kraxner, F., & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2015). Integrated Multi-scale Modeling Framework for Assessment of Land-use Related Challenges under Global Change. In: Systems Analysis 2015 - A Conference in Celebration of Howard Raiffa, 11 -13 November, 2015, Laxenburg, Austria.

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Abstract

Land is the cornerstone of many of the sustainability challenges the world is facing. About 800 million people are still undernourished today, mostly in rural areas. Agriculture will need to expand production by 60% by 2050 to satisfy future food demand but is anticipated to be the sector most directly hit by climate change. At the same time, agriculture, forestry, and land-use change are responsible for 25% of global anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and these sectors are also key to achieving climate stabilization, as they can provide negative emissions through afforestation and bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage. Advanced system analysis tools are required to capture the multiple dimensions of these challenges: the global partial equilibrium model of agricultural and forest sectors, Global Biosphere Management Model, developed at IIASA, represents the state of the art in model linking across sectors, disciplines, and spatial scales. This model integrates information from a 1x1 km grid where the land characteristics and climate are defined, up to 30 regional aggregates where the international trade is represented. Spatially explicit production activities are defined through Leontief production functions representing the input-output relationships of a large set of production systems/technologies. Crops, grass, livestock, and forest systems are parameterized through biophysical models which capture overall production and environmental impacts such as carbon and nitrogen balances, water use, or GHG emissions. The model can also be used for market foresight, integrated assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation, or for assessment of mitigation options by providing to energy system models, such as Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact (MESSAGE) at IIASA, economic information on abatement potential through emissions reduction, carbon sequestration and bioenergy production. More specific applications of the model have also been applied at global, regional and even national level, and validated by numerous publications.

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