Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030

Frank, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5702-8547, Böttcher, H., Gusti, M., Havlík, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Klaassen, G., Kindermann, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4297-1318, & Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 (2016). Dynamics of the land use, land use change, and forestry sink in the European Union: the impacts of energy and climate targets for 2030. Climatic Change 138 (1) 253-266. 10.1007/s10584-016-1729-7.

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Abstract

A 2030 climate and energy policy framework was endorsed by the European Council in 2014. The main elements are a binding 40 % greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target compared to 1990, a renewable energy share of 27 %, and an energy savings target of at least 27 % by 2030. In this paper, we assess the impact of these targets on the European land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) sector using a Europe focused global land use model linked with a detailed forest management model. We show that implementing a 40 % GHG emission reduction target by 2030 may only have a small negative impact on the domestic LULUCF sink if the additional biomass demand for energy is mostly met through ligno-cellulosic energy crops rather than forest removals. However, if the increased biomass demand were met through higher rates of forest harvest removals, a more negative impact on the LULUCF sink could be expected.

Item Type:	Article
Additional Information:	This study was financially supported by the European Commission – DG Climate Action through the tender contract ‘Development and application of EU economy-wide climate change mitigation modelling capacity (all greenhouse gas emissions and removals)’, contract ref no. 071303/2011/600928/SER/CL1MA.A.4. www.euclimit.eu
Uncontrolled Keywords:	2030 climate and energy policy framework, greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction target, LULUCF, land use change, forestry
Research Programs:	Ecosystems Services and Management (ESM)
Related URLs:	Organisation - http://www.euclimit.eu/
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2016 13:48
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:27
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/13380

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