Evaluating Process-Based Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Mitigation

Wilson, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8164-3566, Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D.P., Guivarch, C., Frame, D., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Osborn, T.J., Schwanitz, V.J., & Thompson, E.L. (2017). Evaluating Process-Based Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Mitigation. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-17-007

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Abstract

Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) analyse transformation pathways to mitigate climate change. Confidence in models is established by testing their structural assumptions and comparing their behaviour against observations as well as other models. Climate model evaluation is concerted, and prominently reported in a dedicated chapter in the IPCC WG1 assessments. By comparison, evaluation of process-based IAMs tends to be less visible and more dispersed among modelling teams, with the exception of model inter-comparison projects. We contribute the first comprehensive analysis of process-based IAM evaluation, drawing on a wide range of examples across eight different evaluation methods testing both structural and behavioural validity. For each evaluation method, we compare its application to process-based IAMs with its application to climate models, noting similarities and differences, and seeking useful insights for strengthening the evaluation of process-based IAMs. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths and limitations, as well as constraints on their application. We develop a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods that should be embedded within the development and use of process-based IAMs.

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