Population projections of the Arctic by levels of education

Emelyanova, A. (2017). Population projections of the Arctic by levels of education. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-17-022

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Abstract

The Arctic is a rapidly changing geographical area surrounding the North Pole. A relatively small total number of around 10 million people (in 2015) reside in the territorial vastness of dozens of sub-national entities north of eight Arctic countries. Local people are subject and driver of the widely discussed transformation. In this study we examine recent population developments and model future demographic trends forward to 2050. By combining available data from national statistics and data demographically reconstructed on health, mortality, and mobility we provide an overview of the factors influencing the number of children born to Arctic women, mortality levels and patterns, causes and implications of changes in the sex and ethnic composition, aspects of population ageing, as well as the spatial distribution and patterns of migration across the North.

To account for regional characteristics we incorporate assumptions on the processes of population change explicitly Arctic in nature in addition to global ones. We explore the age and sex parameters of interest, and the level of higher education based on the fertility and mortality of people with a different level of attained education. We present three alternative future scenarios: “Medium development”, “Arctic Boost”, and “Arctic Dip”. The sub-national and country-wide population projections suggest how education as a factor of human capital may drive demographic shifts in various parts of the Arctic.

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