Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Popp, A., Calvin, K.V., Luderer, G., Emmerling, J., Gernaat, D., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Strefler, J., Hasegawa, T., Marangoni, G., Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515, Kriegler, E., Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498, van Vuuren, D.P., Doelman, J., Drouet, L., Edmonds, J., Fricko, O. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6835-9883, Harmsen, M., Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, et al. (2018). Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C. Nature Climate Change 8 (4) 325-332. 10.1038/s41558-018-0091-3.

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Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement calls for countries to pursue efforts to limit global-mean temperature rise to 1.5 °C. The transition pathways that can meet such a target have not, however, been extensively explored. Here we describe scenarios that limit end-of-century radiative forcing to 1.9 W m−2, and consequently restrict median warming in the year 2100 to below 1.5 °C. We use six integrated assessment models and a simple climate model, under different socio-economic, technological and resource assumptions from five Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). Some, but not all, SSPs are amenable to pathways to 1.5 °C. Successful 1.9 W m−2 scenarios are characterized by a rapid shift away from traditional fossil-fuel use towards large-scale lowcarbon energy supplies, reduced energy use, and carbon-dioxide removal. However, 1.9 W m−2 scenarios could not be achieved in several models under SSPs with strong inequalities, high baseline fossil-fuel use, or scattered short-term climate policy. Further research can help policy-makers to understand the real-world implications of these scenarios.

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