A framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity coming from high levels of immigration

Belanger, A., Sabourin, P., Marois, G. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2701-6286, Van Hook, J., & Vezina, S. (2018). A framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity coming from high levels of immigration. IIASA Working Paper. Laxenburg, Austria: WP-18-008

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Abstract

Background
Pressures to keep immigration rates at relatively high levels are likely to persist in most developed countries. At the same time, immigrant cohorts are becoming more and more diverse, leading host societies to become increasingly heterogeneous across multiple dimensions. For scholars who study demographic or socio-economic behaviours, the need to account for ethnocultural “super-diversity” brings new challenges and complications.
Objective
The main objective of this paper is to present a framework for the prospective analysis of super-diversity in several high immigration countries.
Methods
We developed microsimulation models that simultaneously project several population-dimensions for Canada, the United States and countries of the European Union, with the aim of studying the consequences of alternate future population and migration trends.
Results
The paper presents the projected progression of three indicators of diversity for Canada, the USA and the EU28: percentage of foreign-born population, percentage of the population using a non-official language at home and percentage of non-Christians under the reference scenario. Results from alternative scenarios show the potential impact of modifying the composition of migrant cohorts. The paper also examines the projected changes in the labour force for each region by education level and language. Finally, the paper proposes a new longitudinal indicator that counts the number of years lived as active and inactive over the life course for foreign- and native-born cohorts.
Contribution
The microsimulation models provide much more informative results than more traditional cohort-component or multi-state models to study the future effects of ethnocultural super-diversity on high immigration countries.

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