Key determinants of global land-use projections

Stehfest, E., van Zeist, W.-J., Valin, H. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0618-773X, Havlik, P. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5551-5085, Popp, A., Kyle, P., Tabeau, A., Mason-D’Croz, D., Hasegawa, T., Bodirsky, B.L., Calvin, K., Doelman, J.C., Fujimori, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7897-1796, Humpenöder, F., Lotze-Campen, H., van Meijl, H., & Wiebe, K. (2019). Key determinants of global land-use projections. Nature Communications 10 (1) e2166. 10.1038/s41467-019-09945-w.

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Abstract

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

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