An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget

Damon Matthews, H., Tokarska, K.B., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, Smith, C. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0599-4633, MacDougall, A.H., Haustein, K., Mengis, N., Sippel, S., Forster, P.M., & Knutti, R. (2021). An integrated approach to quantifying uncertainties in the remaining carbon budget. Communications Earth & Environment 2 (1) e7. 10.1038/s43247-020-00064-9.

Preview	Text s43247-020-00064-9.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (1MB) | Preview
Preview	Text 43247_2020_64_MOESM1_ESM.pdf - Supplemental Material Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (2MB) | Preview

Abstract

The remaining carbon budget quantifies the future CO2 emissions to limit global warming below a desired level. Carbon budgets are subject to uncertainty in the Transient Climate Response to Cumulative CO2 Emissions (TCRE), as well as to non-CO2 climate influences. Here we estimate the TCRE using observational constraints, and integrate the geophysical and socioeconomic uncertainties affecting the distribution of the remaining carbon budget. We estimate a median TCRE of 0.44 °C and 5–95% range of 0.32–0.62 °C per 1000 GtCO2 emitted. Considering only geophysical uncertainties, our median estimate of the 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget is 440 GtCO2 from 2020 onwards, with a range of 230–670 GtCO2, (for a 67–33% chance of not exceeding the target). Additional socioeconomic uncertainty related to human decisions regarding future non-CO2 emissions scenarios can further shift the median 1.5 °C remaining carbon budget by ±170 GtCO2.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Michaela Rossini
Date Deposited:	19 Jan 2021 10:35
Last Modified:	09 Sep 2024 12:38
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/16998

Actions (login required)

View Item