Methodology for Manpower Planning in Egypt

McCarthy, F.D. (1981). Methodology for Manpower Planning in Egypt. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-81-001

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Abstract

This paper was written as a contribution to the Employment Strategy Mission to Egypt in Summer 1980. The mission was headed by Prof. B. Hansen and sponsored by the ILO, Geneva, Switzerland. The paper has six principal sectors.

-- The current employment situation is reviewed rather briefly together with a short summary of some of the historical forces which shaped it.

-- Present manpower planning efforts are discussed. Most efforts tend to concentrate on the supply situation. Demand projections face a number of difficulties -- the role of the large Government and public sector, migrants and lack of data on most sectors. There is little integration of supply and demand to provide policy advice on education investment. Education planning poses a number of difficult problems because of the inherent time lags and the large uncertainties involved.

-- A number of macro models are reviewed. They fall roughly into two categories, econometric simulation and Leontief type input-output based approaches. They were developed largely to answer specific policy issues.

-- The EMM (GEM) model was used during the mission to simulate various policy alternatives, some modifications were introduced to the model during this period and a number of others proposed.

-- The data situation is reviewed both at the general level and for addressing specific manpower policy issues. A modular system is proposed which would seek to rectify two of the biggest data problems at the moment -- lack of up to date reliable data and the cost and effort of mounting large scale gathering and analysis operations.

-- The report concludes with a number of recommendations for modeling and data problems.

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