A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project

Lamboll, R., Rogelj, J. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2056-9061, & Schleussner, C.-F. (2022). A guide to scenarios for the PROVIDE project. Earth and Space Science Open Archive 10.1002/essoar.10511875.2. (Submitted)

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Abstract

Several objectives of the PROVIDE project depend on a set of scenarios that can be modelled through either a ‘classical’ forward-looking approach or by a novel approach that ‘reverses the impact chain’. These scenarios are also key elements for the integration of PROVIDE findings in the outward-looking stakeholder Dashboard of the project. Here we describe the set of scenarios that has been developed and will be used within PROVIDE. In total, PROVIDE explores three complementary approaches:
1) 10 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2100, mostly based on the existing literature, used for short-term assessments of impacts
2) 15 distinct tier 1 scenarios extending until 2300, based on different extensions of the 10 literature scenarios, used for assessing longer-run impacts and the geophysical impact of significant temperature overshoot
3) ~1350 distinct tier 2 scenarios, exploring several dimensions of emissions space systematically, such as CO2 net zero date and relative methane intensity. This is used to explore which scenarios are compatible with given climate outcomes. These scenarios can be used to reverse the traditional impact chain, going from acceptable climate risks to descriptions of acceptable emissions.

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