Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming

von Salzen, K., Whaley, C.H., Anenberg, S.C., Van Dingenen, R., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Flanner, M.G., Mahmood, R., Arnold, S.R., Beagley, S., Chien, R.-Y., Christensen, J.H., Eckhardt, S., Ekman, A.M.L., Evangeliou, N., Faluvegi, G., Fu, J.S., Gauss, M., Gong, W., Hjorth, J.L., Im, U., et al. (2022). Clean air policies are key for successfully mitigating Arctic warming. Communications Earth & Environment 3 (1) e222. 10.1038/s43247-022-00555-x.

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Abstract

A tighter integration of modeling frameworks for climate and air quality is urgently needed to assess the impacts of clean air policies on future Arctic and global climate. We combined a new model emulator and comprehensive emissions scenarios for air pollutants and greenhouse gases to assess climate and human health co-benefits of emissions reductions. Fossil fuel use is projected to rapidly decline in an increasingly sustainable world, resulting in far-reaching air quality benefits. Despite human health benefits, reductions in sulfur emissions in a more sustainable world could enhance Arctic warming by 0.8 °C in 2050 relative to the 1995–2014, thereby offsetting climate benefits of greenhouse gas reductions. Targeted and technically feasible emissions reduction opportunities exist for achieving simultaneous climate and human health co-benefits. It would be particularly beneficial to unlock a newly identified mitigation potential for carbon particulate matter, yielding Arctic climate benefits equivalent to those from carbon dioxide reductions by 2050.

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