Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios

Bossy, T., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, & Ciais, P. (2022). Pathfinder v1.0.1: a Bayesian-inferred simple carbon–climate model to explore climate change scenarios. Geoscientific Model Development 15 (23) 8831-8868. 10.5194/gmd-15-8831-2022.

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Abstract

The Pathfinder model was developed to fill a perceived gap within the range of existing simple climate models. Pathfinder is a compilation of existing formulations describing the climate and carbon cycle systems, chosen for their balance between mathematical simplicity and physical accuracy. The resulting model is simple enough to be used with Bayesian inference algorithms for calibration, which enables assimilation of the latest data from complex Earth system models and the IPCC sixth assessment report, as well as a yearly update based on observations of global temperature and atmospheric CO2. The model's simplicity also enables coupling with integrated assessment models and their optimization algorithms or running the model in a backward temperature-driven fashion. In spite of this simplicity, the model accurately reproduces behaviours and results from complex models - including several uncertainty ranges - when run following standardized diagnostic experiments. Pathfinder is an open-source model, and this is its first comprehensive description.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) Advancing Systems Analysis (ASA) > Exploratory Modeling of Human-natural Systems (EM) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	12 Jan 2023 09:06
Last Modified:	12 Jan 2023 09:06
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/18563

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