The Migration Policy Simulation: Engaging stakeholders in Austria’s migration future by linking an agent-based model with a policy exercise

Magnuszewski, P., Campo, P., Strelkovskii, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6862-1768, Fresolone-Caparrós, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7221-3337, Linnerooth-Bayer, J., Poledna, S., Rovenskaya, E. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2761-3443, Pajak, M., Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, Conte, A., Szewczyk, K., & Wegschaider, K. (2023). The Migration Policy Simulation: Engaging stakeholders in Austria’s migration future by linking an agent-based model with a policy exercise. IIASA Report. Laxenburg, Austria: IIASA

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Abstract

This report fulfils the ABM2Policy project Deliverable 2.2: A scientific report describing the protocol and outcomes of the migration-focused gamification exercise and the usefulness of an agent-based model for policy assessment. The goals guiding the research of the ABM2Policy project are twofold: i) to advance macroeconomic agent-based model (ABM) methodology for a realistic and verifiable analysis of migration as an external economic shock to the Austrian national economy, and ii) to explore the usefulness of an ABM combined with a gamified user-interface to support the Austrian migration policymaking discussions and to enhance stakeholder engagement. This Deliverable reports on the second project goal. The ABM was ‘gamified’ by developing a model-based policy exercise (PE) in the complex policy setting of climate migration to Austria. The results of the simulations of a macroeconomic ABM informed (role-playing) stakeholder deliberations, and in some instances, consensus emerged on complex climate migration policy issues. The PE brought to the fore the diverse and often conflicting viewpoints regarding migration through a process of discussion and negotiation, which in turn helped the participants understand the complexities of migration issues in the Austrian context. Overall, the PE participants assessed the game to be an effective tool for gaining knowledge and understanding of the policy process on environmental migration. The preliminary trials show promise in combining an ABM with a PE to support stakeholder deliberations on the migration policy process. The next step is to conduct a similar policy exercise with relevant Austrian stakeholders, e.g., political party members and public officials, to inform actual policy processes.

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