Opportunity windows accelerate action and expand options for climate adaptation in Europe

Di Fant, V., Middelkoop, H., de Bruin, K., Petersen, A.-K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7386-2563, van den Hurk, B., & Haasnoot, M. (2026). Opportunity windows accelerate action and expand options for climate adaptation in Europe. Communications Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43247-026-03332-2. (In Press)

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Abstract

Climate adaptation must be intensified globally to keep up with increasing climate change impacts. To date, adaptation is mostly driven by climate risks that need to be reduced and little by opportunities. We identify opportunity windows -i.e. favourable conditions for new or upgraded measures- by constructing an evidence-based dataset from qualitative and quantitative sources, and discuss how they can help to progress adaptation. Here we find evidence of past, present and future adaptation opportunity windows throughout Europe. Present and past triggers for opportunity windows include the implementation of European Union Directives and post-disaster recovery funds, and societal support after floods, droughts and wildfires. Future opportunities relate to aging dams and storm surge barriers. Opportunities also emerge from innovations (e.g. through pilots) which could inform new forms of adaptation. Decision-makers can operationalise and seize adaptation opportunities through adaptive pathways planning, but would need to anticipate opening and closing windows.

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