Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change

Grünig, M., Rammer, W., Baumann, M., Albrich, K., André, F., Derci Augustynczik, A.L., Bohn, F.J., Bouwman, M., Bugmann, H., Collalti, A., Cristal, I., Dalmonech, D., De Caceres, M., De Coligny, F., Dobor, L., Dollinger, C, Forrester, D.I., Garcia-Gonzalo, J., González-Olabarria, J.R., Hiltner, U., et al. (2026). Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment 7 (1) e401. 10.1038/s43247-026-03582-0.

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to alter species assemblages by affecting the outcome of competition between species. Investigating processes of competition remains challenging in tree communities, as they unfold over extensive spatio-temporal scales. Here, we used a deep learning-based meta-model trained on 135 million simulated tree responses to climate across Europe to investigate changes in the competitiveness of nine major tree species under future climate. We harnessed projections from local process models to train a Deep Neural Network of forest state transitions to investigate climate-induced changes in competition at continental scale. We found decreasing competitive strength for evergreen conifers across their distribution, while deciduous broadleaved species increased in competitiveness. Most investigated species lost competitive strength at their warm range edges. Consequently, up to 25% of Europe’s forests could experience a change in the dominant tree species until the end of the 21 st century, suggesting a profound climate-induced reassembly of Europe’s forests.

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