Regional land use and land-use intensity effects on vertebrate biodiversity across Europe identified using species distribution models

Tudge, S., Etard, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1700-2972, Harris, Z.M., De Palma, A., & Jung, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7569-1390 (2026). Regional land use and land-use intensity effects on vertebrate biodiversity across Europe identified using species distribution models. Landscape Ecology 10.1007/s10980-026-02379-y. (In Press)

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Abstract

Context

Land-use change and intensification are major drivers of biodiversity loss. However, estimates of the effects of land use and land-use intensity on biodiversity on broad spatial scales rarely account for species-specific responses across large areas, instead averaging effects on local assemblages. Current understanding of biodiversity effects on broad spatial scales is therefore limited.
Objective

To investigate the broad-scale effects of land use and land-use intensity on habitat suitability for cropland and forest vertebrates throughout their contemporary ranges in Europe. To summarise regional-scale effects on vertebrate biodiversity patterns in Europe by synthesising the effects on range-wide habitat suitability for individual species.
Methods

Cropland and forest vertebrate occurrence records and geographic range estimates were combined with a European land-systems map. Species distribution models (SDMs) were used to estimate the effects of land use and land-use intensity on habitat suitability on a landscape scale throughout species’ ranges. Linear coefficients were specified to keep models interpretable, avoid overfitting and facilitate the use of priors based on expert knowledge. Regional-scale effects were explored for species groups based on habitat preferences, taxonomic groups and range sizes.
Results

Land use and land-use intensity significantly affected cropland and forest vertebrate habitat suitability on a landscape scale across Europe. The effects of land use and land-use intensity on habitat suitability varied among species groups. Land‑use intensification and urbanisation disproportionately favoured more widespread species.
Conclusions

Landscape-scale land use and land-use intensity help shape regional biodiversity patterns across Europe via their influence on habitat suitability throughout species’ contemporary ranges.

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