Wind energy expansion in China produces substantial CO2 reductions and climate benefits

Long, Y., Chen, Y., Liu, Y., & Wang, H. (2026). Wind energy expansion in China produces substantial CO2 reductions and climate benefits. Geography and Sustainability 7 (4) e100489. 10.1016/j.geosus.2026.100489.

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Abstract

Wind power is central to decarbonizing China’s power sector, yet its CO2 reduction benefits are often evaluated using static assumptions that overlook the dynamic evolution of the energy system. To address this limitation, we established a dynamic assessment framework taking two distinct approaches: the Dynamic High-Carbon Displacement Emission Factor (DHC-DEF), which assumes the priority displacement of high-carbon baseloads, and the Dynamic All Mix Energy Displacement Emission Factor (DAM-DEF), which reflects the system-wide average emission intensity of the evolving power mix. Leveraging this framework, we quantified wind power’s mitigation benefits and conducted a monetized assessment of its climate–economic value in different Social Cost of Carbon (SCC) scenarios. The results show that, owing to wind power’s leapfrog development over the past two decades, China has achieved a cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) reduction of 3,672.41 Mt in the DAM-DEF case, generating around $273.26 billion in climate benefits. By 2060, an annual wind generation of 6,660 TWh is expected to abate at least 931.25 Mt of CO2, achieving a climate–economic value of around $33.52 billion. Cumulative reductions over the entire period are forecasted to reach 50,101.21 Mt, delivering economic returns of around $1,803.64 billion. Spatially, the mitigation contributions have been largely concentrated in North (45.7 %) and Northwest (15.8 %) China. Notably, our analysis results show that the strategic prioritization of displacing high-carbon or coal-fired technologies holds the potential to boost mitigation benefits by over 50 %. Moreover, given the high sensitivity of economic valuation to SCC, policymakers should incorporate SCC into dynamic shadow pricing mechanisms and energy planning to support high-quality wind power development.

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