Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios

Jin, Z., He, Y., Wang, Y., Wang, K., Xu, H., Gui, Y., Tian, X., Gasser, T. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4882-2647, & Piao, S. (2026). Fossil fuel emissions dominate Northern Hemisphere CO2 seasonal cycle trends under mitigation scenarios. Nature Communications 10.1038/s41467-026-75003-x. (In Press)

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Abstract

Variations in the atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycle across the Northern Hemisphere have historically been dominated by terrestrial ecosystems, making ground-based observations a reliable proxy for terrestrial carbon dynamics. However, whether this dominance will persist in the future remains uncertain. Here we combine atmospheric transport modeling with factorial simulations to assess and attribute future changes in the CO 2 seasonal cycle through 2100. We show that the dominant drivers of these changes shift fundamentally across scenarios. Under the high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), strengthening land sinks dominate and amplify CO 2 seasonal variability, preserving ground-based observations as a reliable terrestrial proxy. In contrast, under the low-emission scenario (SSP1-2.6), CO 2 seasonal amplitude declines widely, driven primarily by reduced fossil fuel emissions and their dampened seasonality. Consequently, established ground-based CO 2 observations may no longer reliably track terrestrial carbon dynamics under mitigation pathways, underscoring the need for new approaches for monitoring and climate policy verification.

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