Mitigating housing vacancy with urbanization in China

Yu, P., Chen, Y., Chen, Y., Zhang, X. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1961-3339, Deng, X., Yung, E.H.K., Chan, E.H.W., & Gu, B. (2026). Mitigating housing vacancy with urbanization in China. Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 13 (1) e1054. 10.1057/s41599-026-07451-1.

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Abstract

The expansion of urban built-up areas encroaches on adjacent croplands and natural lands, thereby posing significant threats to food security and ecosystem services. Concurrently, a substantial proportion of urban housing remains unoccupied, resulting in the inefficient use of valuable resources and undermining sustainability. Reducing housing vacancy while promoting economic growth and urbanization is therefore imperative. Here we show a notable decline in the housing vacancy rate in Chinese urban areas, decreasing from 0.274 in 2000 to 0.220 in 2020, despite a 28% increase in urbanization levels during the same period. By 2020, vacant housing accounted for an underutilization of 7960 km² of housing space and an estimated loss of 15,020 billion USD in social benefits. Moreover, the full utilization of vacant housing could accommodate an additional 190 million people, offering possible pathways for the redistribution of land resources to alleviate housing shortages. With urbanization levels projected to rise from 64% in 2020 to 80% by 2050, the associated loss in social benefits due to vacant housing is expected to decline by 12,085 billion USD. To accelerate this transition and maximize societal gains, it is crucial to remove housing purchase restrictions, which would facilitate rapid urbanization and further reduce housing vacancy rates.

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