Scenario modelling shows urban planning can reduce city-scale GHG emissions in transport and buildings by 14% in 2050

Creutzig, F., Javaid, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0453-2701, Mastrucci, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5611-7780, Kılkış, Ş., Nachtigall, F., Zhao, B., Martinez, L., & Napiontek, J. (2026). Scenario modelling shows urban planning can reduce city-scale GHG emissions in transport and buildings by 14% in 2050. Environmental Research Letters 21 (14) e144005. 10.1088/1748-9326/ae83d1.

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Abstract

Urban planning (UP) is a key lever for municipal climate mitigation, relevant for both reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in urban transport and within the building sector. However, it is unclear how large the municipal mitigation potential of UP is. Here, we develop scenarios that explicitly consider the contribution of new settlements between 2025 and 2050 for both transport—by reducing the distance travelled by cars and by modal shift-, and buildings—by supporting more compact building forms that reduce energy use and construction demand. We find that UP—a focus on compact design, mixed use, and low-carbon transport infrastructure—can reduce future GHG emissions by 14% compared to business as usual, with about equal contributions from transport and building sectors, notably including construction. Compact UP benefits the public purse, but requires land markets that internalize social costs. Our analysis highlights the importance of developing and rapidly growing cities in Asia and Africa in supporting UP-related mitigation efforts.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	urban planning, climate change mitigation, transit-oriented development, urban development, market failure
Research Programs:	Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Integrated Assessment and Climate Change (IACC) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Sustainable Service Systems (S3) Energy, Climate, and Environment (ECE) > Transformative Institutional and Social Solutions (TISS)
Depositing User:	Luke Kirwan
Date Deposited:	20 Jul 2026 07:58
Last Modified:	20 Jul 2026 07:58
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/21739

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