Supporting Technology Development Evaluation with Multiple Attribute Analysis and Fuzzy Decision Analysis

Ormala, E. (1983). Supporting Technology Development Evaluation with Multiple Attribute Analysis and Fuzzy Decision Analysis. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-83-059

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Abstract

In many industrialized countries technology development programs have become one of the main policy measures for enhancing future economic growth. The choices between alternative programs have turned out to be highly unstructured decisions which are very difficult to support. In this study a process of evaluation system design is developed.

The approach developed disaggregates the problem into pieces. First, the objectives of the organization or activity have to be defined. Secondly, the properties of the objective set are analyzed using multiple attribute utility analysis and fuzzy decision analysis. The final system design starts with defining the required characteristics of the system. The system is composed of three separate subsystems interacting with each other. The prior evaluation system structures the prior evaluation process and defines the evaluation procedures, objectives, and responsibilities. The simulation model utilizing the mathematical theories mentioned above supports the intuitive evaluation process. The performance evaluation system measures the performance of the organization, provides a check for the prior evaluations, and establishes a learning process in which the organization utilizes its own experience for orientation in the future.

The developed processes and systems are applied to the evaluation of technology development programs and projects at the Technical Research Center of Finland.

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