Dialog System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic Processes

Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073, Yashin, A.I., & Grechucha, V. (1986). Dialog System for Modeling Multidimensional Demographic Processes. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-86-029

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Abstract

A growing understanding of the importance of demographic processes in social and economic development places greater demands on the quality of demographic research and on the adequacy and convenience of tools used in the analysis of a population's characteristics.

Multistate population models recently became popular in the study of many aspects of demographic transitions, such as migration, marriage, changes of health status, social status, occupation, etc..

Computer programs and software packages were developed to realize such models. However, most of these allow analysis of systems only when fertility, mortality, or transition coefficients do not depend on time. Some authors have overcome this drawback and have created the opportunity to analyze alternative evolutions of the system under various scenarios of natural and mechanical reproduction of the population. However, these programs are not always appropriate for use by the many demographers and health specialists who are not deeply involved in computer modeling. The software is often not flexible enough to enable choices of and changes in the variables that determine the scenarios, the representation of the results, and the control of modeling itself.

The most important disadvantage of these packages is the inability to communicate interactively with the model. As experience shows, interactively working with computers essentially reduces the time spent on model design and debugging. It also creates additional opportunities for model analysis.

Thus, there is a necessity to create a user-friendly system that allows a more effective analysis of demographic processes.

In this paper an interactive system that uses the multistate demographic models is described. The system provides the opportunity to prepare scenarios, change coefficients of the model during the modeling procedure, and present intermediate results. The paper uses some results of research conducted at VNIISI and at IIASA: namely, the design of the man-machine modeling system and the modeling of multistate demographic processes.

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