Multilevel Computer Model of World Development System: User Oriented Descriptions. A Series: Part VII. Multilayer Decision Model on the Oil-Shortage Crisis for North America

Fischer, G. (1975). Multilevel Computer Model of World Development System: User Oriented Descriptions. A Series: Part VII. Multilayer Decision Model on the Oil-Shortage Crisis for North America. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-75-128

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Abstract

In order to demonstrate the conversational use of multilayer decision models, a model on the decision analysis of the oil shortage crisis in North America has been implemented. The basic physical components of such a model are the interactor and the computer. The computer contains a program which has two levels: The decision level and the causal level.

The interactor together with the decision level program represent the decision making part of the system. The causal stratum represents the model of the regional economic and the basic energy relationships, as well as a very simple model of population growth to indicate the level of population at any particular time.

The decision stratum contains four levels: The goal layer, the policy layer, the action layer and the implementation layer. Each of the layers is assigned a specific role.

The lower layers' functions are more technical and concerned with more immediate objectives. The final decision is the result of a coordinated response of all layers.

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