Interactive Energy Demand Analysis: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, PRC

Vallance, B. & Weigkricht, E. (1988). Interactive Energy Demand Analysis: A Case Study of Shanxi Province, PRC. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-88-097

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Abstract

Within the framework of collaboration between IIASA's Advanced Computer Applications project (ACA) and the State Science and Technology Commission of the People's Republic of China (SSTCC), ACA has developed an integrated set of information and decision support system for development planning in China. The system is implemented for a case study of Shanxi, a province in north central China, which is very rich in coal and several mineral resources, but is still at an early stage of development, lacking, for example, a well developed infrastructure, or sufficient water.

The decision support system combines several data bases, simulation and optimization models, and AI components, in an easy-to-use Expert System framework. A graphical and largely symbolic user interface, relying exclusively on menu techniques and providing extensive help and explain functions, makes access to the system's functions easy for the planner and decision maker, who might have little or no computer experience.

The system is designed to assist the five-year planning process in Shanxi Province, which, in the Chinese philosophy of integrated development, includes investment distribution, i.e. primarily economic, but also technological, resource, environmental, and socio-political considerations. The scope of the system, consequently, ranges from the macroeconomic level down to sectoral and more engineering-oriented models.

The energy sector certainly plays one of the most important roles in Shanxi's economic development. Shanxi is China's power house: with annual coal production approaching 250 Mt, economic and industrial development is centered around the production and use of coal.

In the Shanxi software system, modeling the energy demand (and also related investment, labor, and water requirements) of planned production schemes, or more generally, the economic and social development, is done with the help of the MAED-BI (Model for Analysis of Energy Demand in Basic Industries). While centered on heavy industry, the model has been extended to cover the full range of economic sectors for compatibility with the overall system. Connection to a relational data base management system for the definition of input scenaria, and an interactive, graphical user interface for the selective display of model results, are important features.

The model was developed in collaboration with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and is based on previous work done at IIASA's Energy Program. It is not only a valuable component in the overall software system, but also provides an example of the model-based decision support philosophy that is at the core of the overall project.

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