Dynamics in Land Use Patterns: Socio-Economic and Environmental Aspects of the Second Agricultural Land Use Revolution

Nijkamp, P. & Soeteman, F. (1988). Dynamics in Land Use Patterns: Socio-Economic and Environmental Aspects of the Second Agricultural Land Use Revolution. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-88-002

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Abstract

Many attempts have been made in the past decade to model or to replicate the complexity of dynamic economic-environmental systems, but the strategic components (e.g., key forces, surprises and boundaries) were not adequately included, so that these models failed to provide effective and preventive environmental policies. Consequently, mega-trend analysis at a meso level focusing on the qualitative changes and major directions of influence is -- from a strategic policy viewpoint -- more important than seemingly precise model predictions which are usually bound to fail. This implies that joint expert views (e.g. based on strategic scientific forum analysis) and long-term cross-national comparative studies may often provide more appropriate information than conventional analytical tools. These ideas will be further elaborated in this paper in the framework of land use problems.

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