Economic Structural Change: Analysis and Forecasting

Hackl, P. & Westlund, A. (1991). Economic Structural Change: Analysis and Forecasting. Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag. ISBN 3-540-53839-9

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Abstract

In modern economic model building, structural change is a key concept. Economic growth and events like the oil price shocks have impacts on the economic system such that models with fixed structure are illusions.

Considerable progress has been made in the last few years concerning statistical and econometric tools. Methods for identification of structural change, models that are robust to changes and assimilate their effects, and adequate forecasting techniques have been developed. Under the auspices of IIASA a very active community of statisticians and econometricians has made a very influential effort in this area. The purpose of this volume is to document these activities, to present new methods and developments in this area, and to demonstrate applications. Particular weight is given to nonparametric and robust methods for identification of and modeling under structural change, a Bayesian approach to forecast combination, and time-varying parameter cointegration.

This book has four parts: (1) Identification of structural change, (2) Model building in the presence of structural change, (3) Forecasting in the presence of structural change, and (4) Economic modeling and the use of empirical data. The book provides an up-to-date status report on the field and should stimulate applications of the methods in empirical work as well as further research.

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