Decision Analytic Modeling of Uncertainty and Subjectivity in Water Quality Management

Varis, O. (1992). Decision Analytic Modeling of Uncertainty and Subjectivity in Water Quality Management. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-92-054

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Abstract

Quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated to decision making is one of the primary functions of modeling and monitoring targeted to assist decision making in reservoir, river, and lake water quality management. In many practical activities such as environmental impact assessment, the inference is bound to be based primarily on subjective, expert judgments, supported by empirical data and models. A bulk of analytical approaches is presently available for modeling purposes. The paper discusses selected decision analytic approaches to the handling of uncertainty associated to information available, uncertainty as a decision criterion, and as a component influencing the model structure. Computational solutions based on experience on six case studies are reviewed.

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