Time for a Change: Rates of Diffusion of Ideas, Technologies, and Social Behaviors

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990 (1995). Time for a Change: Rates of Diffusion of Ideas, Technologies, and Social Behaviors. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-95-082

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Abstract

Diffusion phenomena are identified to be at the heart of processes of technological, economic and social change. Patterns, regularities and timing of diffusion processes are illustrated on basis of selected examples. A metaanalysis of a larger sample of diffusion processes for the USA identifies rates of change and their historical discontinuities. The paper concludes in emphasizing the interlinkages within whole families of technologies and forms of social techniques (technology clusters). Historically, these have been instrumental in raising productivity and also alleviating many adverse environmental impacts. The emergence of a new cluster could hold promise for an environmentally more compatible technological trajectory leading to further dematerialization and decarbonization of our economies.

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