Decarbonizing the Global Energy System

Grubler, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7814-4990 & Nakicenovic, N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7176-4604 (1996). Decarbonizing the Global Energy System. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-97-006. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 53(1):97-110 [September 1996].

Preview

Text RR-97-06.pdf - Published Version Available under License Creative Commons Attribution. Download (5MB) | Preview

Abstract

The study analyzes the long-term decarbonization of the global energy system, i.e., the decrease of the carbon emissions per unit of primary energy. Decarbonization appears as a continuous and persistent trend throughout the world, albeit occurring at very slow rates of approximately 0.3% per year. The study also discusses the driving forces of the associated structural changes in energy systems, such as technological change. Decarbonization also occurs at end use, and trends for final energy are shown. The quest by consumers for higher flexibility, convenience, and cleanliness of energy services leads to decarbonization trends in final energy that are more pronounced than those of the upstream energy sector. The study concludes with a discussion of the implications for long-term scenarios of energy-environment interactions, suggesting that decarbonization and its driving forces may still be insufficiently captured by most models and scenarios of the energy system's long-term evolution.

Actions (login required)

View Item