The Impacts of Climate Change, CO2, and SO2 on Agricultural Supply and Trade: An Integrated Assessment

Fischer, G. & Rosenzweig, C. (1996). The Impacts of Climate Change, CO2, and SO2 on Agricultural Supply and Trade: An Integrated Assessment. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-96-005

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Abstract

The analysis of the impacts of alternative future energy paths on the regional supply and trade of agricultural commodities is part of an integrated assessment study undertaken a1 IIASA. For the agricultural study, results from the energy models (i.e., IIR and MESSAGE III) of IIASA's Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies project and from the regional air pollution model RAINS developed by IIASA's Transboundary Air Pollution project were compiled to define the economic and environmental conditions for a number of simulation experiments with the BLS model.

This paper examines the impacts of climate change and altered concentrations of CO2 and SO2 in the atmosphere, on crop yields and regional food supply. Three different emission abatement scenarios are tested, representing a range of possible economic development and regulatory pathways.

Emission abatement, in terms of agricultural and environmental impacts, is a regional issue much more than a global one. While there is relatively little difference between outcomes at the global level, regional results vary greatly between scenarios.

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