System Analysis and Scenario Approach for Detailed Long Range Energy Demand Forecasting

Lapillonne, B. (1976). System Analysis and Scenario Approach for Detailed Long Range Energy Demand Forecasting. IIASA Professional Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: PP-76-010

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Abstract

This paper describes a method of energy demand forecasting based on a system analysis of the economy and a scenario description of its development. After a brief analysis of the limits of the traditional econometric tools, the method is described in detail. An application carried out for the French economy is briefly outlined to show more concretely the feasibility and practicality of such a method. To conclude, some general features of the method are reviewed so as to see how its adaptation to other countries could be envisioned. In this vein, a concrete extension to developing countries is proposed.

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