Scenario Writing: One Component of a Systems Approach to Energy/Environment Management

Foell, W. (1976). Scenario Writing: One Component of a Systems Approach to Energy/Environment Management. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-76-020

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Abstract

The primary purpose of this paper is to describe the concept and process of writing alternative energy/environmental futures (scenarios) for the three regions considered in the IIASA research program on Management of Energy/Environment Systems. The paper describes 1) the objective of the writing of the alternative futures, 2) the basis of the organization, 3) the procedures by which components of the futures are chosen and structured, 4) a format for presentation of the results, and 5) a possible procedure by which they can be embedded into a decision or policy framework in a useful and constructive manner. Although the three regions for which the alternative futures have been written are very different in their socio-economic, geographic, and technological nature or structure, an attempt has been made to apply a consistent approach for choosing and writing alternative futures. This paper is meant to provide that framework as a prelude to the actual description of the futures in a subsequent report. It describes only one component of the overall research process of the Energy/Environment study.

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